Why we need to consider reopening the economy as soon as possible
A few days ago, I made a post suggesting that it's time for Gov. Whittmer to start decentralizing control of the lock-down orders in Michigan. I believe that it was appropriate for president Trump to cede police authority to the states (actually, in that case, he was legally obligated to do that). Similarly, while the initial, immediate actions by governor Whitmer were fully correct and should be applauded, it appears that we have now reached a point that we can say, with some certainty, that we have been successful in substantially flattening the curve. The situation today is much different than it was in mid-April. Statistically, the predominant number of COVID-19 cases and the deaths associated with it occur in three Michigan counties (Wayne, Oakland and Macomb). The impact of COVID-19 in other counties in Michigan is much lower.
Given that, it seems like it's time for the governor to begin the process of delegating at least some of the re-opening authority to the county commissioners. In doing this, counties that have very few cases can re-open more rapidly. The broad shutdown instructions from the Governor, while important early on, now cast an overly wide blanket that may no longer be appropriate. There are drawbacks associated with this, for sure. The have-nots will move into the turf of the haves and this will cause some strengthening of the virus' impact. However, a longer continuation of a full state-wide shutdown will likely cause irrecoverable long-term harm to a delicate economy, which is unlikely to withstand that shock.
We need to slowly begin the reopening process, or we're likely to be staring at a depression, rather than a large recession. Just in the past few weeks we've seen some large retail companies and a lot of entrepreneurs go belly-up. This trend will strengthen until the shutdown is lifted. For those companies and their former employees, those are jobs most likely gone forever.
In the best of all worlds, it would seem prudent to continue with the current lockdown measures. But the real world vantage point suggests that we have to balance public health and the economy, because one cannot exist without the other. If we fail to achieve this delicate balance, it's likely that this state, and this nation, will head into a tailspin, sooner rather than later. The health and sustinence of the population is intrinsically related to the health of business, and vice-versa. If we get too far out of balance on either side, we head down the rabbit hole.
From my vantage point, we're nearing the precipice. We have to open soon, and we need to do it as carefully and controlled as possible -- but not reopening isn't an option for much longer.
If we don't try to save the small business and the retail industry, they will lose their employees and their businesses and those former employees will be on the street at high risk in the food lines and the shelters. They will seek new jobs in other industries, of course, but not without a potentially significant time delay factor that will have a significant opportunity cost associated with it.
The AP Newswire reported late last week: "“For a lot of those furloughed workers, a non-trivial number will have no job to go back to, because the company they worked for will have failed or will need fewer workers than they used to," said Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist who is now director of macroeconomic policy at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth."
We all have irons in this fire. We all look at this problem from different vantage points. But this time, independent of political leanings, we need to work together to extricate ourselves, our state, and our nation from an extremely dicey situation, knowing full well that the cost of failure will be extreme.
The question is, with all the extremism in the world today, do we still have the moral and ethical compass as a State and a Nation to make that happen.